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Oxford Economic Papers 2005 57(2):191-261; doi:10.1093/oep/gpi019
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Right arrow C33 - Models with Panel Data
Right arrow C51 - Model Construction and Estimation
Right arrow D84 - Expectations; Speculations
Right arrow D91 - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
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© Oxford University Press 2005; All rights reserved

The 2004 Hicks Lecture

Separating uncertainty from heterogeneity in life cycle earnings

Flavio Cunha*, James Heckman{dagger}, and Salvador Navarro*

*Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 E. 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, USA {dagger}Department of Economics, University of Chicago, the American Bar Foundation and Peking University, and Department of Economics, University College London

This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable. This has important implications for using measured variability to price risk and predict college attendance.

Key Words: JEL Classification: C33 • D84 • I21


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