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Oxford Economic Papers Advance Access originally published online on September 18, 2006
Oxford Economic Papers 2006 58(4):681-705; doi:10.1093/oep/gpl018
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Right arrow C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
Right arrow C43 - Index Numbers and Aggregation
Right arrow E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Right arrow E37 - Forecasting and Simulation
Right arrow E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
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© Oxford University Press 2006 All rights reserved

Adjusted monetary aggregates and UK inflation targeting

Leigh Drake*, and Adrian R. Fleissig{dagger}

*Nottingham University Business School, Nottingham, NG8 1BB
{dagger}Department of Economics, California State University, Fullerton

Correspondence: e-mail: Leigh.Drake{at}nottingham.ac.uk

This study shows how to construct monetary aggregates using a procedure to adjust the simple-sum, Divisia and empirical monetary aggregates to be consistent with weak separability. The corresponding adjusted monetary aggregates have considerable leading indicator information and provide the most accurate predictions of inflation over the Bank of England's two year forecast horizon.

Key Words: JEL classification: C14 • C43 • E51 • E52


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